The trend towards a general slowdown in property price growth, at the end 2007 of the year, confirmed: in big cities, demand is no longer so dynamic, supply volume starts to grow, and the ceiling of prices in the secondary housing gradually begins to crack.
Over the past ten years, home values have jumped by 73% (48,5% in real prices), however, in recent years, this forward movement has noticeably slowed down: if in 2003 year, the rise in price was 10,6%, then 2006 year prices increased by 6,2%, and 2007 year - at 6,1%. Moreover, compared to the 1st half 2007 of the year, number of transactions in 2008 year decreased, in big cities, prices are marking time, and in the middle herethey will start losing ground.
However, opinions differ regarding the characteristics of price movements.: some experts believe, that prices are stable, other, referring to the numbers of the 1st half 2007 of the year, speak directly about the inevitable decline. This difference of opinion is explained by, Most likely, the, what's the end 2006 the period of downtime of the housing sold is constantly increasing.
At the end of the first semester 2008 of the year, apartments in all big cities are looking for a buyer on average for 5-6 months, and this period continues to increase. (Recall, that the same terms of purchase transactionssales were recorded in 1998 year, at the lowest stage of market development in the last 10 years.) Compared to the rental market, simple vacant apartments, put up for sale, almost twice as long - this situation is completely unusual for Italians. At the same time, the number of transaction registrations decreased by 4,7%.
The difference between the declared and real sales price increases. In big cities, the buyer almost always manages to get a discount of about 8-9%, and if it is dilapidated housing, major overhaul, then all 15%. In smaller cities, the seller is inferior on average 10% from the requested price. When selling new buildings, there are cases, when a builder or developer, not finding the right number of buyers, revised its price lists, reducing prices by 2.5-3.5%.
The most popular among buyers are houses and small apartments - up to 60 quarter. m - area (80,9% demand), medium housing - from 60 to 120 quarter. m - size is 14,7% demand, and only 4,4% buyers. In particular, in the main cities, in areas, close to the center, most buyers for "kopeck piece" - (65% demand), and on the outskirts and suburbs - for three-room apartments in new buildings (50% demand).
Falling asleep prices
In the market of "used housing", as Italians call real estate in the secondary sector, there are clear signs of an upcoming increase in the stock of apartments for sale: in major Italian cities, excluding the central quarters and old prestigious areas, more and more houses on display. Supply is growing in new buildings in nearby suburbs, as well as small provincial towns, like Perugia, where over the past three years, construction areas have begun to increase at an unprecedented rate. On average, supply in metropolitan areas increased by 7%, while in smaller cities - by 4-6%.
Prices froze in big cities, and to a certain extent the same stagnation is observed in medium-sized cities. Really, compared to last¬last year, in the first half of the year 2008 housing in metropolises has risen in price, in annual projection, only 2–3% and 4–5% in medium-sized cities. Similar insignificant, compared to the same period 2007 of the year, the rise in prices gives the experts from UBH reason to predict in the next six months a slight decline in housing prices by 3,5%. However, they predicted it at the end 2006 of the year, when sales dates for apartments in major cities began to lengthen.
Average price of a "square" in the first half of the year 2008 year amounted to € 2,400. In a big city, an average “kopeck piece” on the outskirts after a major overhaul will cost € 230,000., and in a smaller city, like a Russian regional center, the same living space will cost almost 20% lower - € 190 thousand.
The ups and downs of the rental market
A slight increase in prices is observed in the rental market in large cities: supply is not growing so fast, like the last two years, however, the volume of vacant rented apartments still slightly exceeds demand. In medium-sized cities, rented apartments are empty for 3-4 months, and rental prices are losing ground.
For landlords, renting is not very attractive, since Italian rental law strictly protects the interests of the tenant, eg, prohibits significantly or arbitrarily increasing the rent and obliges to conclude a lease at least, than 8 years. For this reason, landlords often artificially inflate the rent in the contract., anticipating future growth in rental rates after several years, during which they will not be able to change the terms of a long-term contract.
At the same time, overpriced rental prices are encouraging many Italians to buy housing, especially since the state provides the buyer with material assistance through tax incentives. And this, in turn, contributes to maintaining the stability of the purchase marketsales.
Segmentation in Italian
In the high quality real estate market (spacious apartments in the center of the main cities, island Venice, villas with sea view) prices continue to rise (6–7%), since demand here slightly exceeds supply. Wealthy buyers especially appreciate spacious apartments (from 150 quarter. m) with high ceilings in the old center of Rome or Milan (65% demand for prestigious housing). The average price of a "square" in this sector is € 9817 in Rome, in Milan € 9348; the most expensive square meter in Rome reaches € 30 thousand., and in Milan up to € 24 thousand.
The main contingent of buyers here are rich foreigners, mostly English, the number of which has decreased slightly due to the American mortgage crisis. For the next six months, Nomisma analysts expect prices to drop by an average of 5%, due to the weakening of the financial potential of this clientele. However, the recent emergence of wealthy Russian buyers on the market gives them bright hopes..
Purchaser of luxury housing, which the, usually, does not depend on the mortgage loan, gains a certain edge when trading and becomes more discriminating. If the seller is interested in getting the deal done quickly (and it takes at least 2-3 months), he usually lowers his requests somewhat.
At the same time, stagnation or impending recession, no matter how experts assess the situation on the housing market, gives out some essential signs: prices for objects of medium and low quality are decreasing, the demand for housing in not very popular places has dropped, supply began to grow in the suburbs of megalopolises. In this segment, real estate is usually bought on a mortgage, and now the number of loan applications has decreased by 20%. That circumstance affected, that the purchasing power of Italians is very sensitive to even a slight increase in mortgage interest rates, since the vast majority of mortgage contracts (87%) Is a "floating" mortgage (loan with an annual variable rate).
However, the sellers of apartments have not yet got used to the new circumstances and are still inflating prices.. But, because compared to even last year, buyers have a pretty good choice, they are in no hurry to make deals, and this leads to market immobilism.
In Italy, all roads do not lead to Rome for a long time, and to the north, in Milan, its economic capital. International Capital of Fashion and Design, headquarters of world renowned publishers and mainstream media, financial center and Italian stock exchange, this one and a half million city is much closer to New York, than to patriarchal Naples. People come here to live in the hope of quickly finding a good job, as the unemployment rate in this city is one of the lowest in Europe - 2%. The glorious status of the city also makes itself felt in the prices of Milan housing, who easily compete with the Roman. Suffice it to say, what with 1998 by 2005 year housing prices in Milan increased by 158%! Therefore, the all-Italian weakening of market dynamics is not so clear here.: demand is stable, supply slightly increased; average price per square meter - € 3820.
The demand is stable, supply slightly increased, the number of transactions decreased slightly; average price per square meter € 3820.
Over the last semester, prices have increased by 1,6%, and over the past year 4,9%, housing is waiting for the buyer about 5 months, and the size of the trade concession reaches 10%. Sales in new buildings are more dynamic: apartments leave a couple of weeks faster, and the average discount is only 4%. This is in line with the new trend in consumer interests: today, preference is given to comfortable housing.
Compared to last year, the number of transactions decreased by 13%, especially strong, two-thirds, sales fell on the outskirts and suburbs.
The cheapest "square" in an inferior apartment on the outskirts will cost about € 2500, and the most expensive, in an old palace in the center, overlooking the marvelous gothic cathedral made of stone lace or the city park, almost in 10 times higher.
The Eternal City on Seven Hills maintains its reputation as the capital of the world, if only in words. Modern Romans love their city, despite the many inconveniences of life in it, in particular, the undeveloped metro network and traffic jams are cleaner than Moscow. Despite the low birth rate, the number of Romans will soon approach three million, and thanks to that, that on the outskirts there are still quite a lot of vacant lots for future new buildings, they will have a place to live.
In the Roman housing market from the second semester 2007 years, clear signs of slowdown began to appear: although prices are rising, but somewhat slower, than last year. Over the last semester, they have grown by 3,3%, and over the past year - by 7,5%, the amount of the trade concession reaches 13%. Secondary "lies" for 4-5 months, apartments in new buildings are sold a little faster. Compared to last year, with stable demand, supply slightly increased, and the number of concluded deals decreased by 10%. However, this is not yet reflected in prices., and the average price per roman square meter is high: €3570.
The greatest dynamics of transactions was registered in the regions, close to the center, and also on the outskirts, which speaks of the displacement of a significant part of buying interests due to too high housing prices in the center.
Houses in a stately center surrounded by ancient monuments, luxurious baroque churches, in ancient squares with fountains or obelisks are still inaccessible to the average Italian, and since construction is here, usually, prohibited, limited supply leads to significant price increases (9% for the last year). And it is the elite housing that drives up the average prices of the capital's real estate.
In the province, the main pricing factors are the proximity to the sea, beauty and reputation of the place, general condition of the house, as well as the amount of adjacent land. In neighboring villages, the price per square meter may vary by 2,5 fold: from € 2 to € 5 thousand.
According to the real estate service Homes in Italy, over the past year, most country property transactions were concluded in coastal Liguria, bordering the French Riviera and famous for its picturesque villages. Here are the most expensive villas and houses. Tuscany¬how much is not inferior to Liguria in the beauty of landscapes, nor for the high cost of houses, but in the northern part of it, in the vicinity of Bagni di Luca, housing is somewhat cheaper, since these places are not very accessible. Popular, and hence the roads, дома в окрестностях знаменитого озера Маджоре, в часе езды от Милана. Эти регионы любимы и иностранцами, которые скупили здесь около 10% real estate objects.
Новой и перспективной местностью для отпускных резиденций стала Апулия, самый «каблук» Апеннинского сапожка, где за последние несколько лет рынок жилья необыкновенно оживился, привлекая к себе действительно низкими ценами. FROM 2001 года здесь ведется массовое строительство и реконструкция домов. for instance, в провинции Лечче предложение очень обширно: выставляются на продажу целые деревни. Еще и теперь тут можно купить небольшой дом в 100 метрах от моря за €130 тыс., но он потребует частичного ремонта. Отремонтированный домик неподалеку, in 300 meters from the sea, обойдется в €170 тыс.: повышенная цена объясняется наличием гаража, построенного в подвальном помещении. В свежеотстроенных виллах, окруженных несколькими сотками земли, «квадрат» обойдется в дваtimes more: €2500–2800. При такой относительной дешевизне жилья риэлторы предсказывают непрерывный рост цен в течение ближайших 5 years.
В начале июля в Турине состоялся всемирный съезд архитекторов, which happens every three years. Several St. Petersburg pros went to Italy.
Svyatoslav Gajkovic, head of the studio "Studio 17":
XXIII Congress of the International Union of Architects is a three-day communication of order 8 thousand professionals, everything in the world works 1,3 million architects. Meetings and Seminars, Exhibitions, video screenings take place simultaneously on multiple venues. The main one - the multiplex Lingotto Center - was redesigned by the famous Renzo Piano from the production buildings of the Fiat plant twenty years ago. Another one - the indoor stadium "Palawela" - was built for the Olympics 2006 of the year.
The main impression - they talked mostly not about architecture, the slogan of the congress, which is difficult to understand for many participants - “Transmitting Architecture (Transmitting architecture)"Was invented, in my opinion, for, to capture the public interest of architects. Their responsibility to influence politics, the economy, civilization in general. Nice to hear, though, of course, this is a revaluation. Nonetheless, in the West the thought is instilled, that an architect should be respectful - not ruining the historical environment, wateredкорректным – не проектировать излишнюю роскошь, когда в мире не все богаты, экологичным – не угрожать своими проектами природе (моржам из-за глобального потепления остается все меньше льдин для отдыха).
Кратко эти темы обозначались тремя словами – культура, демократия, надежда. В области жилой архитектуры идет поиск, как строить малоэтажное высокоплотное жилище. Это фундаментальная идея, которая найдет применение если не завтра, то послезавтра. Опыт России и Юго-Восточной Азии по проектированию жилых небоскребов – вне моды, it is not discussed at such meetings.
Many were most impressed by the speech of Muhammad Yunus, Nobel laureate from Bangladesh, the author of the small loan system. He began to give mortgage loans in the presence of a land plot, without guarantees and certificates. But only to women. Housing and family problems were solved simultaneously. Men stopped leaving their wives after, as, gritting teeth, gave them the rights to land in order to obtain a loan.
Oleg Romanov, Vice President of the St. Petersburg Union of Architects:
Italian Minister of Culture spoke at the congress and to the applause of the audience, especially its Italian part, he announced the preparation of a national law on the quality of architecture. We could not get the text of the project, but I think, it is not about the quality of building materials, it goes without saying, but about the quality of projects in the broadest sense, which echoes the motto of the congress - culture, демократия, надежда.
once, during the congress, a group of young people ran into the hall and distributed brochures with protests against the construction in the very center of Turin to everyone, рядом с башней Молле Антонеллиана, небоскреба высотой под 150 метров по проекту Ренцо Пьяно.
Из того, что мы видели в Турине, запомнился жилой квартал Марио Ботта. Здания строгой архитектуры имеют высоту не больше шести этажей, игра идет цветовыми пятнами на фасадах и балконах.
Text: Татьяна МАТАНЦЕВА, Дмитрий НОВИК
Journal “Your home abroad”
A source: prian.ru